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Evolution of ransomware: Forecasting industry resilience amid threat actor tactics

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The second half of 2023 promises to be dynamic in the ransomware landscape. Organisations must prioritise cybersecurity, remain vigilant, and adapt to emerging threats.

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The pace of change in the cybersecurity landscape is rapid, and as we move into the first half of 2023, it is marked by distinct trends and shifts in threats. According to a report, ransomware has had a significant impact on various industries, with the top five being professional services (26%), public services (24%), manufacturing (23.66%), high technology (15%), and healthcare (11%).

These sectors are particularly vulnerable due to their valuable data, including customer information, intellectual property, financial records, and operational secrets, which threat actors can exploit for financial gain or a competitive edge. Additionally, these industries often operate critical facilities such as manufacturing plants, hospitals, and transportation networks, making them more likely to consider paying ransoms to restore operations and prevent disruptions.

Given threat actors' pursuit of profit and their experience in targeting these sectors, these industries are expected to remain among the top five most affected by ransomware attacks.

A History of Action and Reaction

In recent years, cybersecurity has witnessed a cycle of action and reaction. Cyberattacks prompted organizations to invest heavily in security tools and training. In response, threat actors adapted, shifting strategies to bypass standard security measures. This evolution led to the targeting of different operating systems and increasingly sophisticated tactics. Despite evolving threats, cybersecurity professionals and organizations have responded actively. During the first half of 2023, global law enforcement agencies executed impactful arrests and seizures, fostering unprecedented collaboration. This cooperation enhanced information sharing, attribution accuracy, and responses to ransomware threats.

Changing Tactics: The Rise of Data Exfiltration

Some threat actors are moving from traditional encryption-focused attacks to data extortion. Data exfiltration involves stealing sensitive data and threatening its public release unless a ransom is paid. This tactic offers advantages, including a smaller network footprint and reduced reliance on encryption. One notable group adopting this strategy is Luna Moth, which resurfaced in Q1 2023. They target small and medium-sized businesses through phishing campaigns, exploiting human psychology and trust over technical vulnerabilities.

Expanding the Attack Surface

The potential attack surface grows as ransomware groups target multiple operating systems, including Linux and macOS. A recent example of this trend was the emergence of ransomware targeting macOS in 2023 from the LockBit group. While macOS has been less susceptible to ransomware attacks, its growing adoption makes it an attractive target.

Continued Impact of Geopolitics

The Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on cybercrime has been notable. A decrease in ransomware-related attacks in 2022 was attributed to cybercriminals fleeing Russia to avoid military drafts. However, law enforcement agencies globally have been actively targeting cybercriminals. The crackdown on Genesis Marketplace, a platform for stolen credentials, exemplifies these efforts.

Looking Ahead: The Resilience Imperative

As we look ahead to the second half of 2023, the ransomware landscape is poised for further evolution, characterized by several key trends. Large ransomware groups such as ALPHV/BlackCat and LockBit are expected to persistently enhance their operations, capitalizing on new vulnerabilities and expanding their attack surface. Meanwhile, emerging threat actors, empowered by Cybercrime-as-a-Service resources and armed with , initial access brokers, leaked source code, and commodity RATs will establish ransomware operations with remarkable agility.

Data exfiltration attacks will continue to rise, offering threat actors a means to reduce exposure and complexity by stealing sensitive data before encryption. Furthermore, the growing threat to macOS challenges its traditionally perceived security, necessitating proactive security measures, including regular updates, user education, and robust security software. Geopolitical factors, exemplified by events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will maintain their influence on cybercrime, with law enforcement actively targeting cybercriminals linked to such events, potentially disrupting their illicit operations.

Vantage View

The second half of 2023 promises to be dynamic in the ransomware landscape. Organizations must prioritize cybersecurity, remain vigilant, and adapt to emerging threats. Proactive security measures, incident response planning, and threat intelligence are vital for resilience against evolving ransomware threats. Aggressive cybersecurity practices are fundamental for resilience and business continuity in this constantly changing landscape.

The author is President, APAC, . Views are personal.

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Raj Sivaraju
Raj Sivaraju
Raj Sivaraju is the President, APAC at Arete, leading the region's business, setting strategic goals, managing budgets, and supervising operations and business development. With over 29 years of leadership experience, Raj has a proven track record in global delivery. At Deloitte U.S. India, as CIO, he established international IT operations serving multiple countries. He played a pivotal role in promoting diversity at Deloitte, helming a senior management mentoring initiative.
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