Key Points
- Fewer than 10 per cent of organisations globally are quantum safe, says IBM executive
- McKinsey projects quantum computing could generate $2.7 trillion in economic value by 2035
- UK recommends organisations shift to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035
Fewer than 10 per cent of organisations globally have taken steps to protect themselves against the security risks posed by quantum computing, Alessandro Curioni, vice-president for Europe and Africa at IBM, said at a London conference on Wednesday (14 October).
Quantum computing, a technology that uses the principles of quantum physics to perform calculations at speeds far beyond what conventional computers can achieve, could eventually break the encryption systems that protect banking transactions, digital signatures, blockchain networks and sensitive government communications.
“If you look at the world, how many organisations became quantum safe? I would say less than 10 percent today,” Curioni told AFP on the sidelines of the conference organised by the American technology company.
IBM, which competes with Microsoft and Google in the quantum computing race, has set a target of developing a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer for commercial clients by 2029. A fault-tolerant system is one that can continue operating correctly even when some of its components fail, a critical requirement for practical quantum computing applications.
Encryption vulnerabilities
Curioni, who also heads the IBM Research Lab in Zurich, warned that quantum computers could eventually compromise the encryption underpinning much of the global digital infrastructure. Encryption is the process of converting data into a coded format that can only be read by someone with the correct key.
“The internet, all the blockchains, the banks, financial contract, digital signature,” Curioni said, listing systems at risk. “First, maybe they are going to attack the financial institution, then the industry, then the banks.”
The warning comes amid growing concerns about cyberattacks globally. While existing quantum computers are not yet powerful enough to break modern encryption, the technology is advancing rapidly. Countries including the United States, China and France are investing heavily in quantum research.
David Debnam, operational risk director at British insurance firm Aviva, told the same conference that data theft today could have consequences years from now. “I think the biggest risk for us is actually that data has probably already been harvested,” Debnam said.
The concern is that malicious actors may be collecting encrypted data now with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computers become sufficiently advanced, a strategy sometimes referred to as ‘harvest now, decrypt later’.
Regulatory timelines
The United Kingdom has recommended that organisations transition to quantum-resistant cryptographic systems, meaning encryption methods designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers, by 2035. Quantum-resistant cryptography uses mathematical problems that are believed to be difficult for both conventional and quantum computers to solve.
By the numbers
Key figures from this story- Less than 10%
- Organisations globally that are quantum safe
- $2.7 trillion
- Projected quantum computing economic value by 2035
- 2029
- IBM target year for commercial quantum computer
Management consultancy McKinsey estimates that quantum computing could generate up to $2.7 trillion in economic value by 2035, spanning applications in drug discovery, materials science, financial modelling and logistics optimisation.
According to Curioni, the benefits of quantum computing would be substantial. Combined with artificial intelligence capabilities, quantum systems could “simulate problems that were too complex from a physical viewpoint”, he said, referring to applications such as modelling molecular interactions for pharmaceutical research or optimising supply chains across multiple variables simultaneously.
Implications for Indian enterprises
For Indian organisations, the quantum threat carries specific implications. The Reserve Bank of India has issued guidelines on information security that require banks and financial institutions to maintain robust encryption standards. The Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) has repeatedly flagged the need for organisations to assess emerging technology risks.
India’s financial services sector, which processes billions of digital transactions daily through systems including the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), relies heavily on cryptographic security. A transition to quantum-resistant systems would require significant investment in infrastructure upgrades and staff training.
The government’s Digital India initiative and the expansion of digital public infrastructure have increased the volume of sensitive data flowing through government and private systems. Experts have noted that early planning for quantum-resistant security could prevent costly emergency transitions later.
IBM’s 2029 target for a commercial fault-tolerant quantum computer suggests that organisations have a limited window to prepare their security infrastructure. The company has not disclosed pricing or specific capabilities for its planned commercial system.
Your Questions, Answered
What is quantum computing and why is it a security risk?
Quantum computing uses quantum physics principles to perform calculations far faster than conventional computers. This speed could eventually allow quantum computers to break the encryption protecting banking systems, digital signatures and sensitive communications.
When could quantum computers break current encryption?
The exact timeline is uncertain. IBM aims to develop a commercial fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. The UK has recommended organisations transition to quantum-resistant systems by 2035.
What is quantum-resistant cryptography?
Quantum-resistant cryptography uses mathematical problems designed to be difficult for both conventional and quantum computers to solve, providing protection against future quantum attacks on encrypted data.
What is the harvest now decrypt later threat?
Malicious actors may collect encrypted data today with plans to decrypt it once quantum computers become powerful enough, meaning current data theft could have consequences years in the future.
